Week 10 Pre

Friends,

This is a big weekend in college football. We have the Cocktail Party (Is it ok to call it that?), Georgia Tech's Homecoming, a matchup between Top 10 ranked FSU and Miami...it is going to be an exciting weekend! We also discuss the future of Mike London at Virginia and what the expectation of the fans should be at UVA...is 5-7 and 7-5 type seasons what we should expect or can they do better?

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GT The Comeback Kids? by Patrick

Hey friends-
We've got another article from our friend Patrick. We had gotten several emails after the VT game about the inability for Georgia Tech to come back from games late.  Now, obviously you don't ever want to put yourself in a position to have to come back, but obviously, it's going to happen to everybody at some point.  So, we sent Patrick out to crunch some numbers and here you go.

Hello again, 4th & short readers!

I sincerely hope you all enjoyed my first 4&S article! If not, maybe this'll be my chance to redeem myself in your eyes.

I want to continue on my brief series that I've titled "GT Mythbusters". In Part I, we looked at the effect that CPJ's under-center-option-based-spread offense has on Georgia Tech's recruiting abilities. For Part II, we'll take a look at how CPJ's offense affect Georgia Tech's ability to come back from a deficit.

GT MYTHBUSTERS PART II - GEORGIA TECH WILL NEVER BE ABLE TO MOUNT A COMEBACK LIKE A PRO-STYLE TEAM WOULD WITH THEIR THREE-YARDS-AND-A-CLOUD-OF-DUST OFFENSE

Similarly to how we looked at recruiting, for Part II we will use a relative comparison to GT's previous coach, Chan Gailey. The GT offense under CCG was an exercise in underachievement, and I'm sure my fellow Tech fans will agree with me here. Most of us remember all too well the predictable play calling, the "sit on the lead" mentality, and who could forget the awful 9-6 loss to Wake Forest on a dreary December day in Jacksonville in the 2006 ACC championship game WE HAD CALVIN JOHNSON TASHARD CHOICE AND PHILIP WHEELER TO NAME A FEW HOLY CRAP HOW DID WE LOSE THAT GAME okay rant's over. I was hoping to be able to find some national averages on this topic but sadly have not been able to find a database of such information. I do believe that this exercise will be educational, at worst.

A couple of caveats before we dive in. First off, it is impossible to comment on a team's ability to make a comeback in a game given that this also requires the defense to make a certain number of defensive stop(s). In an exhaustive study of a team's comeback ability, we'd need to look at each team's defensive qualifications. However, for our purposes, it actually works out that the relative differences between the offense and the defense have been about the same (GT had fairly strong defenses under CCG but fairly weak offenses; vice versa under CPJ). Secondly, we have to discuss overall team talent. If we can assume that the Rivals' class recruiting rankings are a reasonable standard to measure this, we found out last week that CCG was only marginally better, having a 1.4 places edge on CPJ's recruiting class average rank during his tenure. In conclusion - more or less, we can say that our analysis will be controlled for defensive ability and talent level.

I've listed below the records by year when trailing at any point in a game by 10 points or more. We'll look at the first five years of each coach's tenure since CPJ is currently in his sixth year.

CCG (total: 2-17)
2002: 0-3
2003: 0-5
2004: 1-5 (who could forget Wes Durham's "SON OF A GUN!" call on Calvin's game-winning TD in Clemson?)
2005: 0-3
2006: 1-1 (4-point win over Maryland where Michael Johnson took over on UM's last possession)

CPJ (total: 2-19)
2008: 1-2 (that win over UGA was a big one, no doubt!)
2009: 0-3
2010: 1-5 (down 17-6 in 4Q in Wake, probably lingering effects from loss to Russell Wilson & his Wolpack the week before, but Nesbitt made sure we didn't pick up an L)
2011: 0-3
2012: 0-6

So what can we gather from this comparison? Obviously CPJ has had a worse winning percentage, only marginally though.
The number of close games played is actually very close (<10% difference), which lends a bit of credence to our original 
theory about the relative differences between CCG's offenses/defenses and CPJ's offenses/defenses. The winning percentage number
itself is very close too, with CCG having a slight edge, 10.5% to 9.5%.

A few other notes on the above data before we get to our final verdict:
-It's fairly easy to see how strong a team was based on how many of these games are played in a particular season. We know that 2003 & 2004 CCG teams weren't very good, and we know the same for CPJ's 2010 and 2012 teams. Those four teams account for only 40% of the seasons we're reviewing but account for 58% of the games trailing by 10+ in that span (that Pareto fellow strikes again!) No other season out of the ten had more than three such games. Furthermore, in this 10-season set, those four seasons had a combined winning percentage of 52% while the other six seasons represented a combined WP of 65%.


A few other notes on the above data before we get to our final verdict:
-It's fairly easy to see how strong a team was based on how many of these games are played in a particular season. We know that 2003 & 2004 CCG teams weren't very good, and we know the same for CPJ's 2010 and 2012 teams. Those four teams account for only 40% of the seasons we're reviewing but account for 58% of the games trailing by 10+ in that span (that Pareto fellow strikes again!) No other season out of the ten had more than three such games. Furthermore, in this 10-season set, those four seasons had a combined winning percentage of 52% while the other six seasons represented a combined WP of 65%.
-The splits on CPJ's ACC championship season in 2009 are interesting. Tech went 11-3 that year, which means GT was 11-0 in games where they never trailed by 10 or more, but 0-3 in games in which they did. Goes to show you that even great teams have trouble making big comebacks.

Well, boys and girls, I'm pretty sure we can put this one to bed. CPJ has only had two more games over the course of his first five seasons in which his team was trailing by 10+ at any point than did CCG. A 1% difference in winning percentage is the definition of trivial, especially over 5 years and ~20 games each.

Verdict: BUSTED

-Patrick


Thanks Patrick! It is definitely an interesting topic for sure, what say you?

Week 9 Post

Some crazy games this weekend! The old adage still rings true, never bet against the ball coach! Also, what does this win say about Duke? What about those BCS rankings? Are we going to have a mob of people forming with torches and pitchforks?!?



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Pre Week 9

Here is our week 9 preview-
There are some fun games to look forward to...and Andrew picks Wake? Really? Listen to our analysis for this week and decide for yourselves what you think is going to happen this weekend!


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Week 8 Post (Late, we know)

Friends,

I know you were foaming at the mouth, and we are sorry that it took so long, but here it is. (Also, expect a pre show for next week coming soon!)



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Clay's Review of the Clemson/FSU Rivalry

On the cusp of a huge game tonight, we have a 4th and Short article from our friend Clay, who has some history about the FSU/Clemson rivalry! This is a good rivalry and we should expect a great game tonight! Hopefully this will get you ready to enjoy the game!

            On the heels of a top 5 matchup between Clemson and Florida State, In a game featuring two Heisman worthy quarterbacks, and two coaches who will probably have a few National championships before they retire, now is a good time to look at the history and high points of this ACC rivalry.

            The CLEM/FSU rivalry can be called the premier rivalry in ACC history(excluding FSU/UM since the majority of the rivalry predates Miami joining the ACC.) The first classis FSU/CLEM matchup was the in/famous puntrooskie (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psu879qOkIo )   to Leroy Butler in 1988. This upset of the #3 Clemson tigers by the #10 seminoles, was the true start of the rivalry. In 1989, Clemson avenged the puntrooskie debacle by beating Florida St. in Tallahassee 34-23.Through the 90’s Seminole domination of the ACC, Clemson had decent showing  in the standings but never won an ACC title.

 The 1999 Season marked the start of the Bowden Bowl era in this rivalry, When Bobby Bowden’s son, Tommy, became the head coach of the Clemson tigers. This is when the rivalry heated up and grew to what it is today. In his first season with Clemson, Tommy barely loses to dear old dad in a close 17-14 loss. Finally in 2003 , Tommy Bowden and the Clemson tigers take down and defeat Bobby Bowden and the Seminoles. The junior would then go on to string together 3 consecutive wins in 2005,2006,and 2007 against Florida St. Through out the 9 years of the Bowden bowl, the elder Bowden took the series win 5-4 over his progeny, Tommy. When Tommy resigned from Clemson in 2008, amid some rough times, it marked the end of the Bowden bowl era. With Tommy’s departure,  some Clemson fans thought the program would be in shambles after he left.

With both Bobby and Tommy no longer coaching, A new segment of the rivalry has began with Jimbo Fisher at Florida St. and Dabo Swinney at Clemson. Both of these relatively young coaches will most likely be at their school for some time, which will mean plently of future matchups. Since Dabo Swinney has taken control of the Clemson program he has a 2-2 record against FSU and for Fisher, a 2-1 record as the head coach (3-3 combined record counting his years as FSU offensive coordinator)

Here are some interesting facts and highlights of the Florida St. and Clemson rivalry.

FSU leads the all time series 18-8.  

Since 2007, The home team has always won.

This is the 3^rd time both teams have been in the top ten at the time of their meeting.(1988, 2012)

The puntrooskie

(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psu879qOkIo )   

Heisman winner Chris Weinke 99 yard play action pass to Marvin “snoop” Minnis.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWgC3zOtEQ0

-Clay

Pre Week 8

This week we preview what some are debating as the biggest game in ACC history, the old "Bowden Bowl (sans Bowdens)" FSU at Clemson! There are some interesting storylines heading into this game, and we will breakdown what will be a huge win for one of these schools!



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Week 7 Wrap Up

Friends,

We have finished another week and so much has happened in the world of college football! We thank you so much for your continued listening and we hope that you are enjoying this season as much as we are! That being said, it was a dark day in the state of Georgia yesterday...and we have a few things to say about it!


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Previewing Week 7

Friends,

We have a great show for you this week! Andrew shares his story about meeting the legendary Bobby Bowden, we discuss a widening gap in the large conference landscape and a narrowing between two hometown conferences! We also take a look at the games of the week and a new controversy looming on the College Football Playoff (can we ever be without a controversy ?!?)!

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First in a New Series of Articles!

Hello Friends-
We here at 4th and Short are continuing to expand our output because I'm sure you are just like us...starved for anything that you can get your hands on regarding college football...so we are starting a series of articles on different topics in college football! Our first article comes from our friend Patrick, and we'll let him introduce himself and tell you a little about what he is doing!

Hello 4^th & Short listeners!

First things first – I want to thank Will & Andrew for the opportunity to write for 4^th & Short. I’m a big fan of what they’re doing with this podcast and believe it’s a great resource for the Georgia Tech (and college football) community and am excited to be a part of what they’re doing, for however long they’ll allow me.

A quick introduction – like Will & Andrew, I am a GT alum and huge Tech sports fan, and an Atlanta sports fan in general. I’ve been following Tech athletics since I knew I wanted to attend college there in my junior year in high school (circa 2003). I’d like to say that I’m an objective, unbiased college football fan, but I’m sure my gold-colored glasses show themselves from time to time. I have also had the joy of being friends with both Will and Andrew for several years now, being able to attend and watch several GT sporting events with them.

Enough about me – I want to start off my 4&S writing career with a short series I’m gonna call “GT Mythbusters”. I, like many fellow Tech fans, feel like Paul Johnson’s spread offense catches a lot of flak from both local and national sports media outlets when it comes to his offense. I’ll address these common quips in three sections, starting first with recruiting.

MYTH #1 – PAUL JOHNSON’S UNCONVENTIONAL, NON-PRO-STYLE OFFENSE WILL HANDCUFF GEORGIA TECH’S RECRUITING ABILITY

To be honest, we could spend a whole month’s worth of articles and podcasts talking about the monster that is recruiting. From hat shows to paid subscriptions, it’s safe to say that college football recruiting is nearly out of control. But it no doubt has an impact on a school’s success on the gridiron.

What’s more is that Georgia Tech is at an inherent disadvantage on the recruiting front given the stringent academic demands. For example, all GT students must take calculus. Needless to say this is an easy one for opposing coaches to use – “do you want to have to deal with calculus?”

For our first investigation, let’s take a look at how CPJ has fared recruiting-wise against his predecessor, Chan Gailey. “The Chanimal” was a former NFL coach, spending time with the Cowboys before his time on the Flats, and then with the Bills afterwards. He ran a true pro-style offense and had the typical NFL coaching mindset.  Controlling for school should allow us a fairly accurate view into how well CPJ has done recruiting-wise.

It actually works out pretty to compare CCG and CPJ in recruiting given that both coaches have had six recruiting classes (02-07 for CCG, 08-13 for CPJ). I’ll discount each coach’s first class (2002 and 2008, respectively) based on the conventional wisdom of a coaching change negatively affecting a school’s recruiting (may have to do another article on that at a later date).

The chart below shows the year-to-year Rivals class rankings, the average class ranking, and the standard deviation of the two sets of rankings (this will show how much variation there is for each coach from their “average” class ranking).

Coach	Std Dev	Avg
CG	22.4	53.2
PJ	17.4	54.6

Table A – Division 1 class ranking by year

The two coaches are actually surprising close, with CCG having, on average, one team better in the class rankings. Of course, CCG finished his time at Tech with a great class, including the likes of Morgan Burnett, Demaryius Thomas, Jonathan Dwyer, Josh Nesbitt, and Derrick Morgan and that outlier is certainly helping CCG’s cause. But for the sake of the years we are comparing, it seems CCG was marginally better. Certainly, it would be difficult to compare the two time periods, as recruiting in the Southeast was not nearly as SEC-focused when CCG has at the helm. Note too that CPJ has been slightly more consistent, and has only had one class in the bottom half of Division 1 teams versus three from CCG.

For what it’s worth, it looks like CPJ is in the process of building his best class so far (2014), currently sitting at #29 per Rivals. All things being considered, I’d say that CPJ having only a single-team average difference is something to be proud of, comparatively.

So now we know more how CPJ did compared to his predecessor, let’s take a look at how well he has done within the conference compared to how well  to CCG did. Chart showing relative ranking is shown below. As you look at the chart, keep in mind that there were only nine ACC teams up until VPI, Miami, and BC joined in 2005, so the chart is based on reverse percentiles.

Coach	Std Dev	Avg
CG	0.26	69%
PJ	0.13	72%

Table B – Relative reverse class ranking compared to other ACC teams

We find some similar patterns here. CPJ has more consistency, but CCG was marginally better. We also see how CCG’s great 2007 class and CPJ’s awful 2013 class have significant effect.

So what can we conclude?  Taking out each coach’s best and worst classes gives CPJ the clear edge. Also very safe to say recruiting in the world of Twitter, Instagram, “I don’t know [why I switched]”, and on-campus Chick-Fil-A’s is very different than it was during the six years that CCG was here.

Verdict: PLAUSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY

 - Patrick

Agree? Disagree? email any comments to 4thandshortpodcast@gmail.com

Week 6 Post

Our friends out there at Wake Forrest are dancing in the street this weekend! An exciting week in college football that might answer the question if the U is back.  If you hate the U, you might want to skip about 20 minutes into the podcast as we begin by discussing the GT vs The U. We also delve into the problems at GT and the non problems at FSU as we discuss the thud that the Maryland farewell tour had in Tallahassee.  Also, why do Syracuse fans seem to think they are the New England Patriots? All these questions are answered this week!

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Week 6 Pre Show

Are there any Louisville Cardinals fans out there? Any Maryland Terrapins in the audience? Well, the ACC is making a little switcheroo next year and Louisville is in and Maryland is out! Both of these schools are discussed this week with Maryland's big game vs. FSU, a game between two top 25 teams! We also talk about the Louisville team that is unbeaten, but might be on the outside looking in when the season comes to an end! Also, unless you subscribe to Obscure Sports Quarterly, we have a Football Coach on the show tonight at you might not have heard of, but he still has some interesting insight into the game!



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